According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the trucking industry appears to be showing signs of stabilization.
The latest report for December indicated a seasonal adjustment loss of 800 trucking jobs. Furthermore, the revisions for job data in October and November were also downward, reducing job counts by 800 and 2,000 respectively.
Despite the job declines, the cumulative losses over the past four months have only totaled 500, which indicates that the job market within the trucking sector has been relatively steady. Nevertheless, employment figures remain down 5,900 jobs from December 2023 and 42,000 jobs from the peak observed in July 2022.
The unemployment rate in the U.S. transportation sector was 4.3% in December, consistent with December 2023, but higher than the 2.8% rate recorded in December 2019.
Jan Groen, an economist and founder of Macro Market Notes, stated that the December jobs report reveals that payroll growth in the trucking industry has flatlined since September. “This indicates a stabilization compared to the contraction observed during the summer, suggesting that the sector has reached a new steady state after adjusting downwards following the rapid growth period between 2020 and 2022,” Groen explained.
David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, noted that the current stability in the trucking job market mirrors trends seen in trucking rates. “Truckload rates have stabilized over the past year and have started entering inflationary conditions recently,” Spencer said. He emphasized that a stable operating environment for carriers likely leads to stability in employment, which is positive for trucking companies as long as current conditions remain consistent or improve.
However, Shannon Gabriel, vice president of leadership solutions at TBM Consulting, expressed a cautious outlook, acknowledging fluctuations throughout the year. Despite various impacting factors including elections and weather events, she noted a strong start for 2025, with active resumes in the sector rising from 612,000 in December to 658,000 in January, indicating a slow but steady job growth this year.
