Impact of US Tariffs on the Trucking Industry
The significance of the new US tariffs will not only depend on the rates but also on how long they remain in effect, which is currently uncertain. If tariffs for the trucking sector are temporary—lasting merely a few weeks—they could influence prices and profitability in the market.
Moreover, the trucking industry might adjust the timing of vehicle and parts movements across the border to evade or lessen the effects of the tariffs.
Duration of Tariffs and Industry Response
If the tariffs extend over several months or even more than a year, they could affect the volume of trucking operations. This might lead to some production shifts from neighboring countries to the United States, driven by increased line rates and operational adjustments.
On the other hand, tariffs viewed as “permanent” could fundamentally alter manufacturing locations and trade dynamics in the industry. Collaborating with colleagues analyzing the light vehicle sector, S&P Global Mobility’s MHCV forecast team considers a scenario of somewhat permanent elevated tariffs among the three USMCA members to be improbable.
Future Projections for Tariffs
If the anticipated 25% tariffs come into effect as expected in April 2025, it is now believed they will last longer than previously thought—approximately 16 to 20 weeks, or 4 to 5 months. This represents a shift from our earlier assessment of a shorter duration. This situation evolves alongside the forthcoming renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement and the mid-term US Congressional elections scheduled for 2026.
Current Forecast Stance
For now, amidst the recent fluctuations surrounding tariff enforcement, we are adopting a “wait and see” approach in our commercial vehicle forecasts. While we account for the potential introduction of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico in the Q1 2025 forecast, we have not included these duties in our base case scenarios.
