Discussions about self-driving cars have largely been limited to tech enthusiasts and urban planners. However, if autonomous vehicles fulfill their potential, they could dramatically alter the landscape of America’s economy and culture. It’s essential for a broader audience—including economists, politicians, and social scientists—to engage with these impending changes.
The Impact on Long-Haul Trucking
Freight trucks, such as semis and 18-wheelers, are a common sight on U.S. highways and play a crucial role in the economy. According to the American Trucking Association, these vehicles transport 67% of the freight within the U.S., amounting to approximately 9.2 billion tons annually.
As of 2009, the U.S. had around 2.4 million class 8 trucks and 5.7 million commercial trailers, collectively driving 99.2 billion miles in 2010.
These extensive operations provide employment for many, with about 1.8 million individuals working as heavy truck drivers in 2014. This profession represents one of the last opportunities for middle-class wages—averaging around $40,000 annually in 2015—without needing a college degree.
The Future of Trucking
The challenges of self-driving technology are more pronounced in urban areas, which involve complex interactions with traffic, pedestrians, and other vehicles. Conversely, highways present fewer complications. Many vehicles can already maintain lanes, adjust speeds, and keep safe distances, indicating that self-driving technology is likely to advance on interstates before city streets.
Trucks, being larger, can accommodate more sophisticated sensors and cameras, improving their situational awareness. Consequently, autonomous trucks are expected to be operational sooner than their urban counterparts. Currently, various companies are testing Level 3 autonomous trucks, indicating significant progress.
Job Displacement Concerns
However, this shift raises concerns about job loss. While it’s uncertain when the full transition to self-driving trucks will occur, predictions suggest significant job reductions may happen within the next decade, potentially displacing 1.8 million truck drivers, along with countless other related jobs.
This situation echoes the historical decline in coal mining jobs, which have dropped from 449,000 in 1920 to just 80,000 today. Truck drivers—who mostly belong to the working class—face a similar fate, with few viable employment alternatives, leading to significant dissatisfaction.
As the discussion evolves, voices like Scott Santens advocate for solutions such as a universal basic income to safeguard those workers affected by automation. While this idea has merit, implementing it in the U.S. within the next decade seems unlikely. In the meantime, addressing the needs of displaced truck drivers remains an urgent challenge.
