Trade War and Tariffs Drive Trucking Jobs
A trade war with China and upcoming tariffs led businesses to intensify inventory management, which temporarily boosted trucking jobs in April.
Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that over 1,000 truck driver positions were added in April, marking the fourth increase in the last six months after a nearly year-long decline.
In the aftermath of the pandemic, the trucking industry has been reducing its workforce following an influx of new drivers, which had raised rates. Trucking jobs had steadily diminished since reaching peak employment levels in July 2022. Nevertheless, heightened concerns about tariffs and the trade conflict with China have temporarily stabilized this sector as shippers and receivers ramp up their operations.
Revised figures show that the increase in trucking jobs was lower than initially reported. Last month’s employment data suggested a net gain of 6,800 truck drivers for February and March, while updated statistics reflected only a 4,000-job rise. Since October, trucking employment has increased by 10,000 jobs.
The majority of these additions occurred in March, primarily in response to anticipated tariffs expected to take effect on April 9. However, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on those tariffs, excluding the one targeting China, allowing businesses extra time to adjust. This pause likely contributed to the uptick in demand for trucking in April.
Impacts of Trade War on Future Trucking Jobs
Despite the increased freight demand due to the tariff suspension, the ongoing trade conflict with China might have immediate repercussions. David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, noted that trade volumes with China are “grinding to just a trickle,” which could adversely affect trucking jobs in May. This situation may worsen if the 90-day tariff halt ends without a resolution.
“If agreements are reached with China and other significant trade partners, we could witness a resurgence in demand, necessitating additional capacity and potentially stabilizing or even boosting employment,” Spencer added. “The ongoing uncertainty is likely to create job stability as carriers aim to retain skilled drivers, remembering the challenges faced during the COVID era.”
Unfortunately, the long-term outlook shows a significant decline in trucking jobs, down by 4,000 since April 2024 and more than 63,000 from the peak in July 2022.
Overall Employment Trends in Transportation
When considering employment across all transportation roles, April saw an increase of 29,000 jobs. The warehouse and storage sector experienced the largest growth, adding 9,800 jobs, followed by couriers/messengers (up 8,400) and air transport (up 2,900). The water transport sector, however, faced job losses (down 300), while rail transportation saw minimal changes.
Wages in the transportation sector increased in April, with average weekly earnings rising by nearly $12 to $1,214.79. Compared to April 2024, hourly earnings climbed from $30.48 to $31.39. For production and nonsupervisory employees, weekly earnings surged by over $20 to $1,156.93. Year-over-year, hourly earnings increased by $1.05 to reach $230.05.
Across all industries, the U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding projections which estimated an increase of only 135,000 jobs. Mohamed El-Erian from Allianz remarked that this data reflects economic resilience despite uncertainties ahead.
The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with transportation sector unemployment decreasing by 1.1 percentage points to 3.6%. Although still above pre-pandemic levels, this is significantly lower than the peak of 15.7% recorded in mid-2020. However, the rate for transportation and material-moving roles across all sectors rose by 1.1 percentage points to 6.1%.
