The autonomous trucking sector resembles the Wild West, facing a lack of comprehensive rules and regulations amid the swift rise of self-driving technology.
According to BCC Research, the market for autonomous commercial trucks is anticipated to expand at a rate of 16.2% per year, reaching $6.9 billion by 2028 from $3.3 billion in 2023. Additionally, IDTechEx predicts that roughly half a million autonomous trucks will be introduced globally by 2044.
Major companies such as FedEx, Volvo Group, and Uber Technologies are investing in autonomous technologies to tackle safety issues, driver shortages, and enhance efficiency. However, the absence of federal regulations raises doubts about the path forward for these technologies.
“The absence of a national standard is significant,” stated Lydia Vieth from ACT Research. “The FMCSA has been investigating this for over five years.” Proposed legislation continues to be postponed, especially in an election year, according to Vieth.
State Regulations
Without federal guidelines, individual states regulate the autonomous trucking industry. For instance, California is considering laws that would require drivers to remain in self-driving trucks, while also barring the testing of loaded autonomous vehicles over 10,001 pounds.
In contrast, Texas permits autonomous trucks to operate without human oversight provided they comply with state and federal safety regulations. “Rules differ from state to state, making it essential for the industry to advocate for federal standards,” noted Vieth.
Gradual Implementation
The widespread adoption of autonomous trucks is likely to be gradual, with initial use on straightforward routes, according to Matt Manero of Commercial Fleet Financing. “I anticipate autonomous trucks will operate on direct routes like Dallas to Houston, likely with a driver in the cab for now,” said Manero.
Vieth agrees that even with federal regulations, rapid rollout of autonomy won’t happen due to necessary testing. Current autonomous technology operates at Level 4, meaning it can only function without human input under certain conditions. Full autonomy requires the capability to handle all road scenarios independently.
Benefits of Autonomy
The trucking industry is projected to face a deficit of over 160,000 drivers by 2030, as reported by Statista. Fully autonomous trucks may help alleviate this shortage as testing and regulatory frameworks progress.
Even with a human present, autonomous technologies can offer multiple advantages, such as reduced driver stress, less vehicle abuse, and improved efficiency, stated Grivas from CAG Truck Capital. This not only increases vehicle longevity but also lowers maintenance costs, which is particularly important given the rising operational costs in the industry.
Financing for autonomous vehicles is anticipated to be manageable; however, challenges may arise due to rapid depreciation associated with technological advancements, according to Grivas.
