Leasing Price Projections
The costs for leasing trucks, trailers, and RVs are expected to rise in the first half of 2026, attributed to increased tariffs and possible interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
According to the Equipment Finance News Equipment Pricing Index and Forecast, based on information from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, leasing prices are anticipated to go up, while rental costs may experience a slight decrease. By June 2026, lease prices for trucks, trailers, and RVs are projected to reach 135.1, indicating a 3.3% year-over-year increase, while rental forecasts sit at 128.1, representing a 1.3% decline YoY.
Influence of New Truck Prices
Recent increases in new truck prices, which have surged by $10,000 to $15,000 due to advanced safety and emissions technologies, are driving up first-year costs. This trend leads to uncertain residual values that necessitate a conservative forecasting approach, as noted by Jennifer Sablowski, Vice President of Equipment Finance at Transport Enterprise Leasing in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Additionally, the prospect of several Federal rate reductions by June 2026—potentially starting as early as September 17—could create a more advantageous leasing landscape for higher-priced trucks.
Challenges for Rental Houses
Despite the leasing sector’s growth, rental companies are facing restrictions. Rates at Sunbelt Rentals’ General Tool business continue to rise. However, the revenue from megaprojects and larger clients is hindering overall rate growth, as pointed out by Brendan Horgan, Chief Executive of the Ashtead Group, during a fiscal 2026 first-quarter earnings call on September 3. The Ashtead Group serves as the parent company of Sunbelt.
Horgan explained that, on megaprojects, there is typically an annual allowance for price increases throughout a project. However, existing agreements do not permit further rate hikes each year.
Declining Prices in Construction, Mining, and Forestry
The forecast for rental and leasing rates in the construction, mining, and forestry sectors appears to be on a downward trend. The pricing index forecast stands at 103.6, reflecting a 1.6% year-over-year decrease through June 2026, signaling a decline in this market after several years of price upticks due to the pandemic, according to EFN data.
While a price drop could benefit the equipment industry by revealing underlying issues masked by inflated prices, manufacturing activity in regions covered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis showed signs of contraction in July, with varying reports across states like Minnesota and North Dakota, per the Fed’s September 3 Beige Book.
Higher prices in the region have obscured weaker production volumes for equipment, with one original equipment manufacturer (OEM) noting in the Beige Book that even a slight reduction in dollar sales volume was primarily due to necessary price hikes. The actual production volume of equipment has significantly decreased.
