In November, the inventory of used heavy- and medium-duty trucks saw a decline, indicating a potential recovery for the struggling transportation finance industry.
Although the market is gradually reducing its overcapacity, there remains a surplus of inventory, particularly day cabs that are 5 to 10 years old, according to Jim Ryan, Equipment Lease and Finance Manager at Sandhills Global.
These older trucks are “extremely difficult” to sell, mainly due to financial institutions being hesitant to finance high-mileage vehicles. Many fleet operators are unable to purchase these trucks outright in light of the extended freight downturn, Ryan noted.
“Some regions have seen dealers succeed, but overall, the day-cab market is facing value struggles,” he explained.
Conversely, an increasing number of lenders are willing to finance used trucks recently returned from leases, as “most maintenance or mechanical issues are typically resolved,” Ryan said.
He added, “Maintenance issues often arise after the 500,000-mile mark, so lenders are more aware of this.”
Despite ongoing challenges, the used truck market showed improvement last month, with month-over-month increases in medium-duty and semitrailer values, according to Sandhills.
Used Heavy-Duty Trucks
Inventory dropped by 11.8% year-over-year and 3.6% month-over-month; asking prices decreased by 0.1% YoY and 1.5% MoM; auction values fell by 0.8% YoY and 1.7% MoM.
Used Semitrailers
Inventory saw a 10.2% YoY decrease and a minimal 0.04% MoM drop; asking prices increased by 1% YoY and 0.9% MoM; auction values rose by 1.3% YoY and 2.4% MoM.
Used Medium-Duty Trucks
Inventory fell by 5.9% YoY and 3.8% MoM; asking values dropped by 3.9% YoY, but rose by 1.6% MoM; auction values experienced a 5.2% YoY decline, while increasing by 2.5% MoM.
2026 Outlook
Lenders are optimistic that stabilizing asset values and an uptick in replacement demand will help the transportation finance sector rebound in 2026, according to David Normandin, president of Wintrust Specialty Finance.
“Many assets are reaching the point where they require upgrades,” he stated. “A transition toward a new generation of more stable assets is beginning, which should assist the transportation industry in overcoming its recent difficulties.”
However, the newly introduced 25% tariff on medium- and heavy-duty truck imports may hinder this recovery, cautioned Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics. He noted that uncertainties around emissions regulations and OEM production strategies might also impede financing operations.
