Truck Driver Shortage Eases in 2023

NASHVILLE — The truck driver shortage has slightly improved for the third consecutive year in 2023, primarily due to a continued decline in freight demand, rather than an increase in the recruitment of quality drivers, according to Bob Costello, the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the American Trucking Associations (ATA).

The ATA estimated that the industry faced a shortfall of about 60,000 drivers last year, compared to 78,000 two years ago and a record 81,258 in 2021. However, Costello did not disclose a specific projection for driver shortages in 2024 during his annual speech at the ATA Management Conference and Exhibition.

“The situation has improved, but for the wrong reasons,” Costello stated when responding to an audience query. “If the demand picks up more than I expect, we might see the driver shortage making a comeback.”

The ATA has previously identified several factors contributing to the driver shortage, including the aging workforce, challenges in attracting more female drivers, and the difficult lifestyle associated with long-haul trucking.

Along with the easing of the driver shortage, the industry seems to have reached the lowest point in the freight cycle, and Costello noted that the elements influencing trucking demand are not likely to worsen next year. Some factors may even see slight improvements, despite a slowing economy.

That said, several challenges remain. A downturn in manufacturing activities has negatively affected truck volumes this year, which is a significant reason the freight demand has not rebounded, Costello pointed out. “Many have underestimated the importance of the factory sector to freight,” he remarked.

Costello also predicted more carrier failures, which would take capacity out of the market, along with gradual declines in federal interest and mortgage rates. He suggested that improved home sales and better consumer spending could benefit the carriers that remain. “Yet, any enhancements in freight demand and carrier valuations may come with challenges, especially if lenders implement accelerated payment plans for smaller carriers,” he cautioned. “Ironically, this could lead to more fleets going out of business,” he added.