Overview of Trucking Business Indicators: CCJ’s Indicators provides an update on the latest trucking business metrics, including rates, freight, equipment, and economic conditions.
Positive Growth in Trucking Jobs: The for-hire trucking sector saw an addition of 900 jobs in February, as reported by the Department of Labor’s Employment Situation Summary. This growth occurred despite a disappointing overall job report, with only 20,000 jobs added across the U.S. economy during the same month. However, the nation’s unemployment rate did decrease to 3.8 percent.
Current Employment Numbers: In February, the total employment in the for-hire trucking industry reached 1.5176 million, reflecting an increase of nearly 40,000 jobs compared to the previous year. Since September 2017, trucking has added over 61,000 jobs, marking a continuous trend of monthly hiring gains.
Transportation and Warehousing Sector Trends: The broader transportation and warehousing sector experienced a decline of 3,000 jobs for the month. This drop was primarily due to a significant reduction of 9,700 jobs in courier and messenger services, according to the Department of Labor. Notably, while the construction sector saw a loss of 31,000 jobs, the manufacturing sector managed to add 4,000 jobs.
Current Class 8 Truck Orders: February saw Class 8 truck orders remain low, following an 18-month low in January, as reported by FTR. The total for Class 8 orders in February was 16,700, representing a 5 percent increase from January but a staggering 58 percent decline compared to February 2018. FTR indicates that this represents the worst two-month period since late 2016.
Future Predictions for Truck Orders: FTR anticipates that order levels will continue to remain low throughout 2019, largely attributed to a significant backlog in production slots for most truck manufacturers stemming from the record orders placed the previous year. Despite the recent downward trend, the total Class 8 orders over the past year remain high at 429,000, surpassing most rolling 12-month totals.
Market Insights from FTR: According to Don Ake, Vice President of Commercial Vehicles for FTR, fleets in need of trucks are seeking available build slots without brand preferences, complicating specifications due to a tight parts supply chain. Production levels remain robust as OEMs work through the record orders from 2018. While trucking capacity has stabilized from the chaotic conditions of 2018, business activity remains strong. A slight slowdown in freight growth is anticipated in the latter half of the year, which is expected to ease some of the constraints.
