Executive Summary
The emergence of autonomous trucks raises concerns about the future of truck driving jobs. The U.S. trucking industry, worth $740 billion annually, is anticipated to adopt self-driving technology early, with various tech firms and truck manufacturers racing to innovate. Consequently, numerous reports suggest that automation could significantly reduce the need for truck drivers.
This report examines several scenarios for the integration of self-driving trucks. The findings indicate a more complex narrative that is nonetheless alarming. Autonomous trucks could eliminate up to 294,000 long-haul driving jobs, including many high-quality positions. While some new jobs may be created, these are likely to be local driving or last-mile delivery roles, often associated with poor working conditions and misclassification as independent contractors.
Public policy will be vital in determining whether automation enhances the trucking sector or exacerbates existing issues. The competitive nature of trucking means workers often bear the brunt of any inefficiencies. Strong policy measures are essential to ensure that the gains from technological advances benefit all stakeholders, including drivers, communities, and companies.
Variation in Wages and Working Conditions in Trucking
Although truck driving is frequently viewed as one of the few middle-class professions without a college degree, the quality of jobs in this sector varies significantly. The trucking industry can be categorized into long-distance and local driving jobs. Long-distance drivers often work for “for hire” companies and either transport full loads for single clients or handle mixed loads from multiple clients.
Drivers working for less-than-truckload firms or parcel companies, like UPS, generally enjoy better pay and benefits alongside greater job security. In contrast, full-truckload drivers typically earn lower wages, face high turnover, and are often misclassified as independent contractors. Local drivers, particularly those driving light-duty vehicles, earn considerably less than their long-distance counterparts, often facing harsh working conditions.
Impact of Automation on Trucking Jobs
The analysis presents four key ways automation could transform the trucking industry. Firstly, autonomous trucks are predicted to excel in highway driving, while human drivers will remain essential for local navigation and various tasks. Experts believe that the adaptation of self-driving technology will primarily involve local drivers transporting trailers to designated “autonomous truck ports” for highway travel.
Additionally, automation might result in the loss of approximately 294,000 trucking positions. The jobs at highest risk are typically the non-specialized long-distance roles that are less reliant on drivers managing additional responsibilities. E-commerce growth may lead to the creation of numerous new jobs; however, these positions are likely to offer lower wages and poorer working conditions unless proactive policies are implemented.
Need for Proactive Policies
The shift towards automation in trucking will considerably alter how goods are transported. To ensure technological advancements yield equitable benefits, effective public policy must be established. Policymakers have a prime opportunity to enhance road safety, reduce congestion, and foster quality job creation while tackling environmental concerns through collaboration with various industry stakeholders.
Creating a Sustainable Future for Trucking
Policymakers should consider forming a Trucking Innovation and Jobs Council to unite diverse stakeholders, including workers and employers, to promote career pathways and secure employment stability. The establishment of strong labor standards is crucial for safeguarding workers’ rights, particularly in an era of increasing automation.
Furthermore, innovative policies must focus on delivering economic, social, and environmental benefits. Engaging stakeholders in developing and implementing shared innovation agendas could help ensure that public interests are prioritized as the industry evolves. Exploring models such as human-led platooning with clean trucks may yield the best outcomes for workers and communities alike.
Suggested Citation
Viscelli, Steve. Driverless? Autonomous Trucks and the Future of the American Trucker. Center for Labor Research and Education, University of California, Berkeley, and Working Partnerships USA. September 2018. https://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/driverless/.
