Comparative Analysis of the Truck Driver Labor Market
The labor market for truck drivers, as presented by the American Trucking Associations (ATA), highlights a persistent shortage of drivers since 2005, with discussions about this issue dating back to the late 1980s. Media outlets have periodically reported on this claimed shortage, particularly noting its potential economic impacts, most recently in 2018.
Despite the assertion by industry leaders that a driver shortage exists, this concept poses a challenge for labor economics. Economists typically see shortages as temporary disequilibrium, which should be corrected by market forces over time. While the theory explains labor surpluses well through the concept of efficiency wages, shortages are less understood. Generally, shortages would trigger wage increases in the short term and stimulate an increase in supply in the long term. However, sustaining a shortage for over a decade is unusual and suggests that either persistent specific factors, such as regulatory constraints or skills mismatches, are at play.
Labor Shortage Identification in Truck Driving
Labor economists have attempted to discern “occupational labor shortages” through various frameworks. Carolyn Veneri notes that no single criterion from governmental data adequately identifies an occupational shortage, yet suggests signs indicating a “tight” labor market include rising wages relative to alternative job opportunities and declining unemployment rates. To explore this further, we will assess the truck driver labor market using nationally representative data on employment, earnings, and mobility.
Overview of the Truck Driver Occupation
Truck driving is a significant occupation in the U.S., predominantly male and with minimal educational requirements for entry. In 2017, there were approximately 1.75 million heavy truck drivers and nearly 878,000 light truck drivers. The role, governed by specific regulations, allows for extended work hours, with many drivers working over 40 hours weekly. Trucking is vital to the national economy, responsible for transporting over 60% of freight by value and contributing about 3.5% to the GDP in 2016.
Employment Patterns and Earnings
Analysis using the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) data shows that heavy truck drivers account for roughly half of all truck drivers, with employment numbers recovering after the 2007–09 recession. Wages for truck drivers appear competitive relative to other blue-collar jobs, suggesting a relatively tight labor market. Although heavy truck drivers earn well compared to other occupations, the overall earnings profile indicates a robust demand for their labor.
Labor Market Dynamics through CPS Data
We utilize Current Population Survey (CPS) data to examine the mobility dynamics of truck drivers. Focusing on men aged 20 to 65, we create panels tracking individuals over a year to analyze job transitions. CPS data reveal that while there is some job switching, truck drivers exhibit greater occupational retention compared to other blue-collar occupations. The industries supplying drivers closely align with those employing them, indicating a predictable mobility structure within the labor market.
Understanding Industry Perceptions of Labor Shortages
The discrepancy between observed stability in truck driver employment and industry claims of driver shortages may stem from the unique dynamics of the long-distance truckload market, characterized by high competition and elevated turnover. This segment struggles with recruitment and retention, leading to perceptions of shortages despite evidence of a functioning labor market in broader contexts. Given our findings, the notion of an ongoing labor shortage seems more a reflection of specific segment challenges than a systemic market failure.
