New immigration policies may reduce driver availability, lead to a significant capacity shortfall, and potentially steer the trucking sector out of The Great Freight Recession. The Trump administration’s English Language Proficiency (ELP) requirement, set to take effect in June 2025, is already shrinking the pool of drivers, particularly affecting immigrants who, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), make up at least 20% of the workforce—while FreightWaves suggests that the actual figure is likely much higher.
Impact of H.R. 1: Immigration Measures Intensify
H.R. 1, known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” was enacted by President Trump on July 4, 2025, and amplifies these effects with strict immigration regulations within a larger framework that includes border control, tax reductions, and deregulation. By potentially reducing the number of drivers by tens of thousands, these regulations could eliminate trucking overcapacity, thereby elevating rates and facilitating a quick market rebound.
ELP Mandate Drives Down Driver Numbers
The ELP mandate initiated on June 25, 2025, has already started tightening capacity. New rules from the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance could render 40,000 to 60,000 interstate CDL holders out of service if they don’t meet English proficiency requirements. A significant portion of these drivers are immigrants from Mexico, Eastern Europe, or South Asia, particularly those in smaller fleets or operating as independent contractors. They will face more stringent weigh station checks and additional scrutiny for non-domiciled CDLs.
The mandate necessitates effective communication with inspectors, but enforcement might overlook drivers who show functional but non-fluent English skills. This primarily affects high-turnover roles (close to 90% turnover for long-haul drivers), further squeezing capacity. Domestic replacements are limited due to the job’s demanding nature and an already tight labor market.
H.R. 1: Key Immigration Reforms
Building upon the ELP mandate, H.R. 1 is crucial to Trump’s agenda for his second term, intertwining immigration controls with investments totaling $146.3 billion for border security, extensions of 2017 tax cuts, and regulatory easing. The immigration sections may drastically cut driver availability:
- Parole Program Phase-Out: The bill instructs the Department of Homeland Security to desist parole programs for specific nationalities, which could result in a loss of drivers.
- EAD Restrictions: The legislation restricts Employment Authorization Documents (EADs) for individuals in certain immigration statuses, as well as those seeking asylum, which might affect 40,000 to 80,000 drivers.
- Asylum Fees and Regulations: A new $50 asylum application fee could dissuade approximately 2,000 to 5,000 prospective drivers annually.
- Immediate Deportation: New rules provide for the rapid removal of migrants intercepted near the border, which could dissuade 8,000 to 15,000 drivers in border states.
Enforcement: The Critical Question
Enforcement remains the primary concern. H.R. 1 allocates $37 billion to ICE and immigration reforms, considerably increasing the budget from $9.4 billion in 2024. For perspective, this would make ICE comparable to the 16th most funded military globally, signaling a serious commitment to enforcement. Potential areas of focus include audits of fleets employing EAD-dependent drivers and intensified scrutiny at weigh stations for non-domiciled CDLs.
Paving the Way for Recovery from Overcapacity
Since 2022, the trucking sector has suffered from overcapacity, with the excess of trucks and poor demand causing rates to plummet from $3.53 per mile in January 2022 to $2.28 per mile by July 1, 2025. This has crushed small carriers and strained larger companies like J.B. Hunt, which boasts a revenue of $12 billion. A loss of 105,000 to 175,000 drivers could trigger an intense capacity shortage, easing the overcapacity crisis and aiding recovery from The Great Freight Recession. This could push freight rates back up to levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, compelling shippers and brokers to renegotiate contracts for capacity stabilization.
