September 9, 2025 12:10 PM, EDT
Mack Trucks does not foresee a recovery in North American Class 8 tractor demand until the fourth quarter of 2026, according to Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America. At the FTR Transportation Conference in Indianapolis on September 8, he noted that 2026 would likely see stagnant demand overall.
Randall described the market outlook as “uncertain” when asked by FTR Transportation Intelligence CEO Jonathan Starks about next year’s prospects. He attributed the disruption in truck manufacturing plans to tariffs introduced during the Trump administration and an ongoing freight recession.
Despite the freight market’s unpredictability, Mack initiated its planning cycle for 2026 approximately eight weeks prior. “We’re doing the best we can, but it’s a dartboard,” Randall said, expressing a desire for more certainty.
With the recent shifts in trade policy impacting supply chains, Randall highlighted the crucial role of the company’s legal and policy teams. He mentioned that Mack is actively conducting scenario planning to adapt to market conditions.
Currently, Mack faces a disadvantage compared to competitors that have production facilities in Mexico due to tariffs on imports to the U.S. While Mack relies on its East Coast plants, its rivals with Mexican operations do not face the same levies. The recent introduction of a new 1.7 million-square-foot truck manufacturing facility in Mexico by Volvo Group emphasizes the competitive landscape.
Cost increases due to tariffs have been substantial. While Randall declined to specify the exact cost impacts, analysts estimate a 3% increase in production costs for U.S. Class 8 trucks compared to those manufactured in Mexico. Overall costs for building a Class 8 truck have risen significantly, with noted increases in raw material and fabricated component expenses.
As sales and orders struggle due to tariff uncertainty and a sluggish freight economy, U.S. Class 8 retail truck sales declined by 6.1% year-over-year for the first seven months of 2025. Fleets are hesitant to place orders amid market uncertainty, posing challenges for Mack as it recently launched its new tractors: the Pioneer and an updated Anthem, which opens for orders on September 3 and begins serial production in January.
