Revisions to Truck Transportation Employment Data
In early February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published benchmark revisions to its payroll employment database dating back to 2021. Notably, the adjustments to the truck transportation employment (TTE) segment of total non-farm payrolls caught our attention.
The updated data series (represented by red bars) shows a downward revision of approximately 33,000 jobs compared to earlier figures (indicated by the blue line). Detailed information specifying which sectors of the industry were most affected by these revisions will be available in about a month.
Key Findings on Employment Highs
Of particular significance is the finding that the peak employment level for this expansion has been revised down and is now recorded as occurring in July 2022, which is six months earlier than the previously reported peak of January 2023.
Impact of Yellow Freight Bankruptcy
The chart highlights the month in which the BLS began accounting for the impacts of the Yellow Freight bankruptcy. The decline depicted is consistent across both data series. The employment growth trajectory post-bankruptcy indicates a slight upward trend in the current version, unlike the previously flat trend shown in older data.
Trucking Employment Trends
Those who have attended MacKay & Company presentations may recognize this chart, which we utilize in our monthly analysis of trucking economics and overall business cycles. The downturns in trucking employment serve as crucial indicators of potential economic downturns. Currently, the ongoing decline, which has lasted 17 months through January 2024, represents the longest duration visible in the chart.
Alignment with Economic Activity
The observed stagnation in trucking hiring throughout 2022, followed by a decline in 2023, aligns closely with trends in the broader trucking economy. The chart below monitors the growth rate of Truckable Economic Activity (TEA) alongside TTE, showing that both metrics rise and fall in tandem.
Future Projections
Our preliminary assessment of TEA for the final quarter of 2024 indicates a slight improvement compared to most of the year; however, the indicators from TTE suggest that significant enhancements in TEA growth in the near future are unlikely. Further details will be provided in the upcoming TEA newsletter, set for release in early March.
Robert F. Dieli is the president and founder of RDLB Inc., an economic research and management consulting firm located in Lombard, Illinois. Dieli has held various positions in economics and risk management at notable institutions, including The Continental Illinois National Bank of Chicago and The Northern Trust Company of Chicago. In 2001, he established RDLB Inc., and serves as an economic advisor to MacKay & Company. Additionally, RDLB Inc. releases Mr. Model, a monthly series of reports on current and future US economic conditions, available on its website at www.nospinforecast.com.
