Rising fuel prices in March are impacting the trucking and parcel shipping sectors; however, both industries are gaining enhanced pricing authority.
A quarterly report from AFS Logistics and TD Cowen indicates that parcel carriers are taking advantage of increased fuel costs, resulting in record pricing for both ground and air shipping.
Trucking companies are also experiencing favorable rate conditions due to climbing diesel prices and a shift towards more profitable freight, compounded by carrier exits and stricter regulations.
“Although the phrase ‘new normal’ may evoke less-than-pleasant memories of the Covid period, companies should prepare for a new phase of high fuel prices,” said Andy Dyer, CEO of AFS Logistics. “The structural issues driving this rise will take time to resolve, and the resulting price adjustments, particularly in parcels, tend to remain persistent even when fuel prices decline.”
Parcel couriers continue to leverage surcharges
The Q2 TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, tracking pricing predictions for various transportation markets, suggests further price increases in the trucking and parcel sectors during the April-to-June period.
The TD Cowen/AFS Express Parcel Freight Index is projected to hit a new high of 10.3 percent in the second quarter, rising 1.7 percent from the previous quarter and 6.4 percent year over year.
This translates to shippers paying, on average, 10.3 percent above baseline shipping costs for air transport in the U.S. since January 2018.
Trucking experiences upward pricing momentum amidst capacity adjustments
Although rising rates present challenges for retailers and consumers, they offer trucking companies a reprieve from a freight recession that has persisted for nearly four years. Initial recovery signs are driven more by tighter capacity and supply-side adjustments than a broad surge in demand.
With more carriers and drivers exiting the market due to an excess of trucks and stricter compliance measures, pricing pressures continued to rise as of early 2026. The ongoing conflict in Iran further complicated shipping costs, with average diesel prices increasing by 10 percent year over year.
Looking to the future, the Q2 Truckload Freight Index is expected to reach 10.1 percent above January 2018 levels, marking the first three-month period surpassing 10 percent since 2022.
In the LTL sector, firms like FedEx Freight and Old Dominion have also seen a positive trend, with weight and cost per shipment increasing in the first quarter. The outlook remains optimistic as expanding manufacturing activity aligns with positive pricing trends.
